Hopeful Signs for the Beer Market

Last week, Lester Jones of the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) and Eric Kiser of Fintech presented numbers for 2025’s third quarter. I haven’t tuned into their recent quarterly Zoom presentations, but news in the media has been so overwhelmingly negative, I thought I would this time. And surprise, surprise, things weren’t terrible.

The beer world is really complex, so you see lots of different ways people measure it. The tranche of data presented by Eric and Lester comes from beer purchase data among roughly 281k retailers and 5,500 distributors (which includes self-distributing producers). It’s over a million weekly receipts, accounting for 41% of all alcohol retailer purchases. This means they’re measuring what retailers are buying, not what they’re selling (nor for that matter, what breweries are selling). As Lester emphasized in an email to me, “Remember, this is not volume (barrel or case) measures; think of it as a share of retailer wallets. How retailer dollars are being spent is a different perspective on our industry [and] as a single source data steam, these data serve as a different way of assessing the industry.”

Fintech and NBWA host these Zoom updates every quarter, and I reported on their annual wrap-up at the end of 2024. I do find them interesting in terms of getting a sense of the entire beer market nationally, rather than just a look at the relatively small craft segment. So let’s go to the numbers.

What Did They Find?

One of the main findings in their data is that spending on food and beverage has followed a uniform trend for over thirty years. Since at least 1992, consumers spent more of their food and alcohol dollars on home consumption, but the gap steadily narrowed until just before Covid, when they came into parity. During Covid, spending of course overwhelmingly went to home consumption. Things returned to normal in 2022 and now we are spending a lot more of our food and alcohol money outside the home than in.

“For me,” Lester wrote, “this indicates underlying strength in consumer spending away from home. They are spending more, drinking less. High prices, moderate volumes.”

That was surprising to me, given how rough things seem to be on draft now. I wondered if there were regional variations, and Lester acknowledged that was true—so we’re looking at a national snapshot that will not reflect each city or state perfectly. He wrote, “These data are indeed a national macro economic view of the beer market. No doubts there are a lot of regional and state variations underlining all these data. So, yes consider them as a benchmark to what you are seeing in your market.”

Meanwhile, among on-premise sales, draft beer grew as a proportion of the whole pie, though the pie shrank a bit. Keg purchases gained 4.2% to 54% of all on-premise purchases.

Other findings of note:

Despite early reports of Gen Z not drinking like past generations, we’re starting to see more evidence to the contrary (see graph at the top of the page). This was probably an artifact of Covid or a measuring issue—but they look like a normal generation.
That said, per capita drinking is plummeting. Between 2015 and 2021, Americans were drinking between 26 and 27 liters a year. In 2024 it had fallen to just over 23 liters (-12% in three years).
In terms of segments, light beer continues to dominate, growing slightly to command around 30% of package sales and 42% of draft sales. Imports are a quarter of the market. Finally, no surprise, but “beyond beer” does far better in stores (~15%) than bars and restaurants, while for craft it’s the reverse—IPAs and company hold 18% of the draft market. (See chart below.)
Finally, one random note I found interesting. A lot of outlets have reported that the new #1 beer in the US is Michelob Ultra, which has supplanted Modelo. (Famously, Modelo supplanted Bud Light in 2023.) But according to their numbers, that may not be stable. Likely because of the effects of tariffs and immigration raids on Latino drinkers, Modelo fell in the first part of the year. But it got a bump at Cinco de Mayo, and the two switched back and forth for the next three months. But since then, Modelo has solidly retaken the lead.

All in all, while there’s some bad news, there are bright spots and signs that the bad news—barring, I don’t know, a governtment shutdown-sparked recessions, say—may be diminishing.